I’m totally off the grid these days, but Ryan’s predictions are so bad I had to come in and rip them to shreds and give you the REAL numbers. His bold predictions about how the 2015 domestic box office would turn out were pretty weak. He called his performance was mixed–but for him mixed was chocolate plus peanut butter. In reality, it is a mix of Ex-lax and motor oil. So I am going to go, one by one, through his 2016 picks and give the real number. We have a lunch bet on who has the lowest delta between the acutals and their predictions. NO PRICE IS RIGHT RULES IN EFFECT!
1. Rogue One – Watson: $390 ($450M for Ryan)
Not too far off, but I think 2016 is a year like 2014 where the top film doesn’t get north of $400M. Episode 7 REALLY helps this one obviously. This is the first test of the SW shared cinematic universe. Hope it is amazing. Will Darth Vader be the villain?
2. Finding Dory – Watson: $360M (Ryan: $380M)
If Ryan is right, it is because Ellen DeGeneres is much more popular today!
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice – Watson: $305m (Ryan:$330m)
Curiosity gets this one to $300m but its poor quality will impact the future DCCU.
4. Ghostbusters – Watson: $247m (Ryan: $320M)
Big delta here! A comedy remake is still a comedy remake (or reboot…or softboot…)
5. Captain America: Civil War – Watson: $350m (Ryan: $311M)
I fall on the Avengers 2.5 side of the aisle. It’s close enough to get a huge jump on Cap 2 but not enough to get to Avengers box office. The Rotten Tomatoes score will matter here. If it is as good as Cap 2, this could be the movie to contend with Rogue One for the top spot.
6. The Jungle Book – Watson $185m (Ryan: $280M)
Our biggest disagreement yet. I have Ryan off nearly $100m! Because he IS! This is not a hot property in the Disney pantheon. I like the live action adaption craze they are doing (Cinderella was really enjoyable and Beauty and Beast is gonna be amazing!) but this feels like a wrong turn.
7. X-Men: Apocalypse – Watson: $230m (Ryan: $265)
The last X-film was the best but I don’t see this one outperforming it. Eventually the wheels have to fall off the bus that is this franchise. Not quite this film, but I think a reboot is coming.
8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Watson: $300m (Ryan:$260M)
I agree that this movie suffers from no ACTUAL Harry Potter, but I think the appetite for this franchise has grown so much since the final installment that people are hungry for anything in the Potterverse. The real risk here is that the movie isn’t any good. If it is good, sky’s the limit!
9. Doctor Strange – Watson: $225m (Ryan:$230M)
We are close on this one. Ryan is only $5M off…
10. Star Trek Beyond – Watson: $140m (Ryan: $200M)
I think the drop is much bigger for part 3. I might even be generous at $140m.
That’s the top ten according to Ryan. Mine were roughly the same (different order) except I had Star Trek being bumped. Beyond the top ten, Ryan had 33 other 2016 films he wanted to predict, so here goes.
Passengers – Watson: $185m (Ryan: $160M)
If this film is released, it is my #10 film of the year.
Girl on the Train – Watson: $140m (Ryan: $155M)
Sounds like a decent hit in the making.
Suicide Squad – Watson: $135m (Ryan: $152M)
Batsoup hangover begins.
Alice Through the Looking Glass – Watson: $90m (Ryan: $150M)
Depp is done. Even in this reprise.
Secret Life of Pets – Watson: $150m (Ryan: $150M)
Couldn’t disagree at all. A stopped clock is right twice a day.
TMNT2 – Watson: $85m (Ryan: $150M)
The universe corrects itself.
Bourne 5 – Watson: $125m (Ryan:$140M)
Renner killed the franchise. I’ll bet they don’t call it Bourne 5. Go for Bourne 4!
Zootopia – Watson: $165m (Ryan: $140M)
Ryan’s inability to connect notwithstanding, the response to the DMV scene in the previews KILLED every time I saw it in the theater.
Now You See Me 2 – Watson: $115m (Ryan: $135M)
Radcliffe only has box office draw playing Harry Potter…
Moana -Watson: $100m (Ryan: $130M)
It wasn’t Lin-Manuel Miranda who got Episode 7 to record breaking box office.
Legend of Tarzan – Watson: $50m (Ryan: $130M)
Big points for me here. This is the John Carter of 2016!
Ice Age: Collision Course – Watson: $125m (Ryan: $130M)
Ugh. I hope this comes out on a weekend my kids are with their mom!
Deadpool – Watson: $140m (Ryan: $129M)
Even R-rated, I am bullish on this one. I think it could pop due to the incredible buzz. The fear is that this is a “Snakes on a Plane” sort of buzz and that only the diehards will see it.
The Huntsman: Winter’s War – Watson: $75m (Ryan: $127M)
I was surprised how high Ryan went on this one.
Kung Fu Panda 3 – Watson: $125m (Ryan: $120M)
The kids will fuel this one to mediocre numbers. January is actually a decent spot for this one.
Independence Day: Resurgence – Watson: $115m (Ryan:
Big opening weekend and a huge drop off from there.
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back – Watson: $115m (Ryan: $105M)
MI5 bump. The first was really good, too…
Neighbors 2 – Watson: $70m (Ryan: $90M)
See Horrible Bosses 2. A little bump because the premise is a little easier to replicate than having crappy bosses.
Zoolander 2 – Watson: $60m (Ryan: $80M)
Ryan is right to comp this with Anchorman 2, but Anchorman had a much more loyal following than Blue Steel.
The BFG -Watson: $105m (Ryan: $80M)
TinTin scares me but I give the master a courtesy century mark.
The Magnificent Seven – Watson: $57m (Ryan: $77M)
Sees Magnificent Seven on the list and thinks “I’m gonna be clever and predict $77m!” Then sees Ryan’s prediction and thinks “Dammit…” Heinz 57 it is!
Warcraft – Watson: $120m (Ryan: $70M)
I’m betting the Lord of the Rings crowd gives it some love and the gamers are just gravy.
Gambit – Watson: $115m (Ryan: $60M)
Nah. This one gets more than $60m. That’s practically FF numbers! A strong X-Men film early in the year helps.
The Founder – Watson: $30m (Ryan: $60M)
Oscar bait but not a box office draw unless Happy Meals promote it!
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – Watson: $40m (Ryan: $50M)
Why didn’t they just make this into a TV series. Oh wait. They did.
Assassin’s Creed – Watson: $110m (Ryan: $50M)
I’m ignoring the video game connection. I think that jinx gets broken this year.
The Nice Guys – Watson: $35m (Ryan: $25M)
Ryan could be right. I could be right. A comet could smack the moon. Who knows…
Bridget Jones’ Baby – Watson: $20m (Ryan: $22M)
It’s been so long since the last installment should this be Bridget Jones’ Grandbaby?
Midnight Special -Watson: $18m (Ryan: $20M)
Total guess. Did not even check out the trailer.
La La Land -Watson: $30m (Ryan:$20M)
It gets a little bump up because Whiplash was so good.
Snowden – Watson: $18m (Ryan: $20M)
I’m a liberal and Stone movies can’t connect with me.
Lonely Island Movie – Watson: $40m (Ryan: $15M)
$15M seems too low but I know nothing about Lonely Island.
Angry Birds Movie – Watson: $75m (Ryan:
Kids like dumb movies.